Contingency: Recognition of Maldivian Sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago as a Lawful Decolonisation Pathway

(Strategic Analysis Edition)

Prepared by the Strategic Research Division
Maldives-Chagos Sovereignty Initiative (Maldivians for Chagos)
Republic of Maldives | October 2025

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Disclaimer
This paper is a simulated analytical scenario prepared by the Maldives–Chagos Sovereignty Initiative (Maldivians for Chagos) for academic and civic discussion. It does not represent or reproduce any official position of any government or organisation.

Executive Summary

Following the 2025 India–Mauritius agreement that allows Indian surveillance operations in the Chagos Archipelago, this paper presents a lawful, stabilising, and strategically balanced alternative: the recognition of Maldivian Sovereignty over the Chagos Islands. Drawing upon UN decolonisation law, ICJ and ITLOS findings, and regional security logic, it argues that recognising the Maldives as the historical successor would complete decolonisation, preserve Diego Garcia’s strategic continuity, and transform a contested ocean zone into a cooperative model of governance and shared heritage. The analysis outlines how a U.S.-India-Maldives security understanding could integrate defence coordination, ecological protection, and lawful Sovereignty, creating a multilateral framework that strengthens Indo-Pacific stability. This cooperative model ensures that decolonisation proceeds without compromising allied defence arrangements or regional balance.

1. Catalytic Context: India–Mauritius Agreement and Strategic Disruption

In September 2025, The Economic Times and The Times of India reported that India had reached an agreement with Mauritius to establish a satellite-tracking and surveillance station in the Chagos Archipelago, near the joint U.S.-U.K. base at Diego Garcia. The accord, concluded during Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam’s visit to New Delhi, authorised Indian hydrographic surveys and provided roughly 680 million dollars in maritime and environmental aid (The Economic Times, 2025; Reuters, 2025).

The announcement drew attention across defence and diplomatic circles. Since Chagos remains legally administered as the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), any third-party installation near Diego Garcia challenges the operational exclusivity of the U.S.-U.K. defence framework and adds complexity to the unresolved question of Sovereignty. In this context, the paper explores a legally sound and diplomatically constructive alternative: recognition of the Republic of Maldives as the rightful sovereign successor to the Chagos Archipelago, offering a solution that aligns legality, diplomacy, and regional stability.

2. Legal Background: The Sovereignty Gap

The United Kingdom and Mauritius signed a Sovereignty hand-over agreement on 25 May 2025, but ratification is still incomplete (Reuters, 2025). The International Court of Justice (2019) advisory opinion and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (2020) ruling did not confer Sovereignty on Mauritius. They addressed only the breach of decolonisation procedure, leaving the issue of title unresolved.

Historically, the Maldives was a British protectorate from 1887 to 1965 under Ceylon’s administrative purview (Colonial Office Records CO 54/47-53, The National Archives, UK). Yet the Maldives was never listed among the UN’s Non-Self-Governing Territories under Article 73(e) (United Nations, 1960). As a result, the UN never monitored the Maldives’ decolonisation process or clarified which colonial administration was responsible for transmitting information about outlying island chains such as Chagos.

Re-examining this procedural defect provides a lawful opening. Under General Assembly Resolutions 1514 (XV) and 1541 (XV) (United Nations, 1960), the Maldivian case can be viewed as one of sovereign continuity rather than cession. The Maldives could therefore assert inherited Sovereignty over the Chagos group without contradicting any standing ruling or treaty.

3. Strategic Imperatives: Diego Garcia and the Alliance Equation

Diego Garcia remains the keystone of U.S. power projection from the Red Sea to the Western Pacific. Established under the 1966 U.S.-U.K. exchange of notes, the base hosts long-range bombers, submarines, and signals-intelligence systems (UK Parliament Library, 2025). No comparable U.S. defence agreement exists with Mauritius.

Introducing an Indian facility nearby risks overlapping surveillance zones and potential command friction among allies. From Washington’s perspective, operational predictability requires a single, stable sovereign partner for Diego Garcia. Recognising Maldivian Sovereignty preserves that predictability while fulfilling decolonisation law, ensuring strategic continuity without alienating India or Mauritius.

From a U.S. viewpoint, long-term basing agreements depend on predictable maritime jurisdiction, low domestic political volatility, and uninterrupted freedom of navigation. The Maldives, with its record of neutrality, stable governance, and active role in counter-terrorism and anti-piracy cooperation, offers a more secure environment for Diego Garcia operations than Mauritius, whose maritime boundaries remain politically entangled. This approach gives Washington a way to reconcile legal compliance with operational certainty in the central Indian Ocean.

4. The Maldives Option: Lawful Continuity and Cooperative Diplomacy

The Republic of Maldives represents a convergence of legality, geography, and diplomacy. It is a moderate, non-aligned Islamic republic, a founding member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), and a participant in multiple regional maritime-security initiatives. The Maldives maintains close relations with India, cooperative ties with the U.S. and U.K., and environmental alignment with the European Union.

For India, Maldivian stewardship of Chagos would reduce the perception of foreign encirclement and enable New Delhi to expand its maritime domain awareness through cooperative frameworks rather than exclusive bases. A trilateral security mechanism among India, the Maldives, and the United States could integrate sensor data, hydrographic mapping, and disaster-response systems, transforming Diego Garcia’s periphery into a zone of transparency and coordination.

Recognising Maldivian Sovereignty over Chagos would also allow the United States to preserve base operations under a renewed security agreement; the United Kingdom to complete decolonisation through lawful rectification rather than retreat; Mauritius to continue collaboration in ecological and economic fields; and the UN and EU to witness a rule-based conclusion consistent with their own decolonisation principles. The Maldives option reframes Chagos from a colonial grievance into a regional partnership model that advances Sustainable Development Goal 14 on ocean governance.

5. Implementation Pathway: From Defect to Resolution

Phase I – UN Procedural Review. Malé would petition the Special Committee on Decolonisation (C-24) to review the Maldives’ historical omission from Article 73(e) lists. The United States and the United Kingdom could support a procedural resolution asking the Secretary-General to study the administrative history of the Maldives-Chagos-Ceylon relationship (United Nations, 2019).

Phase II – Legal Validation, Historical Continuity, and Diplomatic Recognition. Maldivian tradition and early European chronicles describe the archipelago’s rulers as exercising maritime authority across southern sea routes long before colonial partition. Sixteenth-century Portuguese records identify the exiled Sultan Hassan IX, known as Dom Manuel, Rei das Maldivas (King of the Maldives), residing in Goa under that title. Later accounts refer to a letter attributed to him that mentions “Pullobay,” possibly a transliteration of Foalhavahi or Peros Banhos in the Chagos group. This reference belongs to the realm of historical tradition rather than verified documentary evidence, serving mainly to illustrate the continuity of Maldivian royal identity during his exile.

The modern legal foundation rests instead on verifiable principles: the ICJ (2019) advisory opinion, ITLOS (2020) proceedings, and UN GA Resolutions 1514 and 1541, combined with the Maldives’ unrecorded NSGT status. Together, these form the basis for a U.S.-U.K.-Maldives Trilateral Memorandum of Understanding under Article 102 of the UN Charter, confirming Sovereignty continuity while keeping operations at Diego Garcia uninterrupted.

Phase III – Coordinated Diplomatic Sequence. The recognition pathway could begin with a procedural note to the UN Secretary-General under Article 73(e), followed by a General Assembly referral to the C-24 for technical review. Parallel to this, the U.S. and U.K. might issue a joint statement affirming that Maldivian succession aligns with prior advisory opinions. At the same time, India and Mauritius join a working group on ecological and heritage cooperation. This dual-track diplomacy would ensure the process moves forward through consensus rather than confrontation.

Phase IV – Regional Integration. Under IORA auspices, the parties could establish a Chagos Maritime Heritage Partnership to coordinate scientific research, maritime safety, and ecological restoration, converting a once-contested zone into a shared trust and a model of ocean stewardship.

6. Geopolitical Outcomes and Diplomatic Balance

The Maldives-recognition pathway balances all major interests. The U.S. and U.K. maintain strategic continuity and moral legitimacy; India remains central to Indo-Pacific security while benefiting from shared maritime intelligence; Mauritius gains prestige and influence through cooperation in science and conservation; and the UN and EU see decolonisation advanced within the rules-based order.

Comparable transitions, such as the negotiated redefinition of Palau’s status under the U.S. Compact of Free Association or the post-colonial arrangements governing the Azores between Portugal and the United States, demonstrate that Sovereignty and security continuity can coexist. These precedents show that a cooperative Maldivian solution for Chagos is both lawful and operationally realistic.

7. Conclusion: Completing History, Not Rewriting It

The 2025 India–Mauritius accord revealed the fragility of the current Chagos arrangement. Yet within this disruption lies an opportunity. Recognising the Maldives as the lawful sovereign would complete decolonisation through inclusion rather than confrontation. This solution does not diminish Mauritius, India, or the U.S.–U.K. alliance. Instead, it unites them in a coherent and lawful framework, offering the Indian Ocean a precedent where history is fulfilled through law, partnership, and mutual respect.

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References

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